Investment Insights March 2026

Last year saw significant geopolitical shifts, notably the US adopting unprecedented trade policies. Global markets digested these changes amid mild economic growth, strong AI-driven efficiency gains, persistent inflation challenges, and solid gains in US tech stocks and emerging markets. Meanwhile, New Zealand and Australian shares saw more modest gains.

In this video, David Scobie, Mercer New Zealand’s Senior Investment Consultant, shares insights from Mercer’s global network of investment experts, covering:

•  How different asset classes performed in 2025.
•  The impact of recent asset performance on member returns.
•  Trends Mercer is monitoring and how they may influence     investment opportunities in 2026.

This video was filmed in mid-February 2026 and the information discussed is relevant at the time of recording.

One year since Trump’s return – impacts on investment markets

As we mark one year since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, it’s clear this period has tested consumers, businesses, and investors worldwide. His unpredictable decisions have reshaped global markets and geopolitics, creating both challenges and opportunities.

Key points to note:

• Financial markets have faced many shocks, but what is interesting is how financial markets have often wobbled and then quickly resumed their upwards path to recover quickly during the first year of his second term, showing resilience despite ongoing uncertainty.
• Early in his term, many believed Trump would not follow through on his bold policy plans - a view known as “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out). However, over time, he has shown greater determination and persistence, yet markets have remained steady despite this shift.
• Investors have followed a clear pattern: they react with initial shock to new policies, then take time to reflect and assess the implications. After this, they recalibrate their risk exposure and adjust their portfolios accordingly, demonstrating a disciplined approach to managing uncertainty.
• Recent geopolitical events include the US military strike in Venezuela, capturing Nicolas Maduro and his wife and bringing them to the US to face criminal charges for narco-terrorism conspiracy. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. However, after years of mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions, exports have dropped from around 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to well under 1 million barrels per day today. Despite these dramatic developments, oil prices remained subdued, reflecting expectations of increased production and a well-supplied global market. Tensions over Greenland have also caused short-term market reactions but limited lasting disruption.
• Despite uncertainties around tariffs, government risks, and global tensions, strong consumer spending and corporate earnings continue to support market growth.

In summary, while the geopolitical landscape remains complex, markets have shown strength by focusing on solid economic fundamentals. Staying aligned with your risk tolerance will help you navigate volatility and pursue your long-term investment goals.